The time entered late October, announcing the traditional textile peak season "gold nine silver ten" came to an end.

Terminal orders are not as good as expected

Many textile companies said that the textile market in the second half of this year was seriously divided, the first half of the year, orders continued, to the summer orders suddenly stopped, although the situation has improved after September, but obviously not as expected.

First of all, in the first half of this year, the blank cloth produced by it did not fully flow into the market, but because of the establishment and maturity of the spot market in the industry, a large amount of inventory is needed to fill, and these inventories will slowly flow into the market for a long time in the future, diluting the volatility of the market.

Second, although many textile enterprises have been saying in recent years, but at the same time, the number of loom is growing at an unprecedented speed, the busy degree of textile machinery enterprises this year is even higher than the high-speed transfer of loom production capacity in 2018, everyone is thinking about reducing costs by scale effect, but also created the unprecedented production capacity at this stage.

Third, because the competition is too fierce, corporate profits are insufficient, the account period is increased, and the cash flow on hand is tight, so placing orders and stockpiling are more cautious.

Fourth, the global economic environment is sluggish, and with the approaching of the US election, black swan events continue to compress market demand.

The polyester market fluctuates with oil

Downstream performance is tepid, it is difficult to give effective support to the upstream fundamentals, and the polyester market can only follow the upstream crude oil flow.

In September, the international crude oil price fluctuated widely, and the overall showed an inverted "N" type, and the price center further moved down. In October, oil prices fluctuated greatly and experienced a process of rising and falling. Oil prices initially spiked due to tensions in the Middle East, but then fell as tensions eased and demand concerns flared.

The plunge in crude oil also once led to the collapse of polyester industry chain costs, in early September, PX fell to the lowest value in three years, PTA also fell to the status of three years, polyester filament prices also fell sharply. After the international oil prices stopped falling, the price of polyester raw materials has rebounded, but it still lacks fundamental support.

Whether the future market can rise again

In November last year, after the cold air swept, the market set off a wave of bile cloth market brought by down jackets, but this wave of market lasted only two weeks, and there are certain speculation components, do not have a strong representative.

From the current market situation, under the general trend of personalized clothing and off-the-shelf fabrics, concentrated pulse bulk orders have gradually been replaced by small batches and multi-batch small orders, and enterprises in the past peak season are rushing to line up in the dyeing factory, but at this stage, a large number of dyeing factories are still filled with orders from spot enterprises.

From the perspective of foreign trade, in recent years, the market potential of developed countries in Europe and the United States is shrinking with the deterioration of local economic conditions, but the share of imported textiles represented by ASEAN countries is increasing, on the one hand, because China's textiles are exported to local processing, on the other hand, because the consumption level of residents has increased after the development of local economy.

However, overall, in the short term, market orders still lack the opportunity to break out, and with the changes in the market and clothing consumption pattern, the concept of the future off-peak season will be increasingly weakened.

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